PUBLIC TRANSPORT PERSPECTIVES FOR 2030 IN BRAZIL: A PATH TOWARDS SUSTAINABLE MOBILITY

Objective: The objective of the study was to analyze projections that impact sustainable urban mobility for the year 2030 in small and medium-sized cities that use the bus as the main modal. Theoretical framework : The research brings perspectives to make urban mobility in small and medium-sized Brazilian cities more sustainable. Method: The Survey method was used; data collection through a questionnaire applied to public transport specialists in Brazil. In the data analysis, the calculation of the degree of agreement of the answers was used for 13 projections, in three aspects: probability of occurrence, business impact and the desire to occur. The averages of each category were also taken, plotted on a graph with X axis (probability of occurrence) and Y axis (impact on the transport sector). Results and conclusion : The results point to an increase in the use of semi-public transport, tariff changes and greater integration between the bus and more sustainable modes such as walking and cycling. For sustainable mobility, a greater interest in sustainability, investment in infrastructure, dedicated corridors and lanes, integration between modes, use of renewable energy and implementation of subsidy can be the key to environmental solutions. Research implications: The research contributed theoretically to the literature review and managerial and political questionnaire indicating the priority points for public and private investments. Originality/valu e: The research points out investment points to make urban mobility more sustainable and at the same time profitable for transport companies


INTRODUCTION
According to the World Urbanization Outlook Review, published by the United Nations (2019), 55% of the world's population lives in urban areas and, by 2050, this percentage will reach 68%. This population growth in urban areas, combined with people's lifestyle, especially how they move within urban centers, causes some problems, such as: congestion, saturated transport networks, air and water pollution, waste disposal, sewage of resources, social inequality, public vulnerability and declining health (Bibri and Krogstie, 2017).
In order to mitigate the environmental problems caused by the negative externalities of the current transport systems, a work of education and awareness of the population and modernization of the public transport systems of the cities will need to occur to attract more users, in addition to the modernization of the current legislation (Damidavicius, Burinskiene and Uspalyte, 2019).
Cities in Europe, North America and Russia are investing in greater comfort for the urban environment, improving the ability of mobility to bring people a better quality of life and greater competitive advantage. However, cities with emerging economies are facing difficulties in developing transport systems that guarantee competitive advantages in the economy and sustainable mobility for citizens (Zakharov and Fadyushin, 2021).
In terms of sustainable urban mobility, at the UN Climate Summit in 2014, UITP launched the Declaration on Climate Leadership. Its main objective is to boost the transport sector, which is expected to double its share of the public transport market by 2025 (UITP, 2020). This declaration is in line with the 2030 Agenda whose objectives promote sustainable development. In this regard, changing the use of public transport can help reduce greenhouse gas emissions towards more sustainable urban mobility (Makarova, Shubenkova and Pashkevich, 2021).
However, other issues, in addition to air pollution, can impact urban mobility and should be considered to collaborate with the UN 2030 agenda (Melander et al., 2019;Shiftan, Barlach and Shefer, 2015;Duarte et al., 2016;Nordfjaern et al., 2014). Therefore, the present research aims to analyze projections that impact sustainable urban mobility for the year 2030 in small and mediumsized cities that use the bus as the main modal.
For the development of the research, ways of prospecting the future were collected in the literature to project how public transport by bus will be working in 2030 in small and medium-sized cities and, choosing Brazil as the study site, because it is an emerging country that massively uses the bus modal.

THEORETICAL BACKGROUND AND DEVELOPMENT OF PROJECTIONS
In this session, the concepts of sustainable urban mobility and public transport by bus will be presented, as well as the reality of the public transport sector in Brazil today.

Sustainable urban mobility and public transport by bus
Currently, urban mobility is a relevant issue for society, since problems such as increased traffic, congestion and excessive pollution caused by motorized transport became evident from 1950 onwards. Since then, problems related to emissions of carbon dioxide have only increased, arousing great interest from international and national academics and policymakers to solve or minimize the impact of the transport sector on the environment (De Las Heras-Rosas and Herrera, 2019).
The term mobility reveals the disposition and capacity for movement and also the movement itself; it has several dimensions, such as intellectual, social, professional or spatial mobility. Spatial mobility encompasses temporary (travel) and permanent (change of job or migration) displacements. Permanent displacements imply changes in the location of activities. Location decisions create relationships between humans and space, creating habitable spaces, cities (Gebhardt, 2021) Thus, while the term "urban mobility" refers to the aspects that allow people to move and the ability of people to reach their destinations using the infrastructure available in urban space, the term sustainable urban mobility will refer to the capacity for development of the present generation, without interfering with the rights and capabilities of future generations to meet their needs in the same way that the present generation did (Gebhardt, 2021;Brazil, 1988).
Similarly, the essence of sustainable mobility lies in the interconnection of the environment, economy and society (Foltýnová et al., 2020).
Thus, encouraging the use of more sustainable means of transport and collective public transport are the key to minimizing environmental pollution, bringing better quality of life and competitive capacity to cities (Bibri and Krogstie, 2017); mainly to cities in emerging countries (Zakharov and Fadyushin, 2021).
In this way, an efficient and well-planned public transport system is the key point to compose the sustainable transport ecosystem, and the bus has greater loading capacity (Kwan;Hashim, 2016) and route flexibility (Pei et al., 2019). Despite their negative image, caused by the longer travel time compared to the car and large agglomerations (Pei et al., 2019;NTU, 2019). Thus, in order to encourage the use of urban public transport (TPU) by buses, it is important that the rules are also directed to companies to strengthen the use of new, less polluting technologies, such as the efforts made in Germany for the electrification of the fleet and shared use of vehicles (Johnsen et al., 2019).
In Brazil, the National Climate Change Plan was enacted (Law 12,187, December 29, 2009). This plan brought the need for the use of renewable fuels and, in a contiguous act, Law 16,802, 17 de jan. 2018, was edited for the city of São Paulo, focusing on the use of renewable fuels for public transport (Brasil, 2009;Brasil, 2018).
Although transport is an important item in the fight against pollution towards sustainability, making urban spaces more comfortable and livable for the population is also of interest to Brazil, through the adoption of a pilot project by SEBRAE for the formation of smart cities. (Brazilian Network of Smart and Human Cities, 2019;SEBRAE, 2019).
To make the concept of smart and sustainable cities adapted to citizens and really effective in their purposes of sustainability, comfort and livability, some authors indicate the use of programs such as "Urban living labs" for consultation and citizen participation in the process of changing their lives. cities (Sarabis et al, 2021;Turku, Jokinen and Jokinen, 2022), this technique would be of great importance for improvements in the public transport sector in Brazil.
Therefore, it is considered that currently Brazil has relevant legislation both on public transport issues, as well as on environmental issues, and is investing in an embryonic way in smart city projects, in this way, Brazil becomes an object of study, relevant to the objective proposed in this research.
Thus, in the next section, the path used for the construction of the 6 dimensions and 13 projections analyzed in this research and the method applied will be described.

METHODOLOGY
The methodology of this research will be described in detail in the next sessions, and it will also be explained how the dimensions and projections were developed for further analysis.

Development of dimensions and projections
To form the dimensions and projections, a literature review was carried out in the Scopus and Web of Science databases to locate works that had made projections for the future in the transport sector. The keywords used in the search were: "Delphi method" and "transport"; "public transport by bus" and "sustainability", excluding duplicate articles, the search resulted in 136 articles. Among the 136 articles, one of them was chosen to form the projections for the Brazilian case, entitled: "Future goods transport in Sweden 2050: Using a Delphi-based scenario", Melander et al. (2019), as the article contains a questionnaire with dimensions and projections for the formation of a scenario for sustainable urban mobility for freight transport in Sweden. Thus, the questionnaire developed by Melander et al. (2019) could be adapted to public transport without significant changes.
It is important to clarify that the "Delphi method" was used as a keyword for the search, because it is a technique that recognizes and seeks value in the articulation of varied and contrasting views as a tool to support the solution of complex political issues, being particularly suitable for solve complex, multi-layered problems that require the attention of multiple stakeholder groups (Hirschhorn, 2019). The choice to make future projections is to verify the impact of urban mobility in the year 2030, where the scores for the goals of the 17 UN sustainable development goals will be verified (UN, 2019).
After preliminary clarifications, the first step in adapting the projections of the Swedish study to the Brazilian case was to review the literature in the Scopus and Web of Science databases to relate each dimension found in the work by Melander et al (2019) with urban mobility served by public transport. The specific keywords used were: "user behavior", "new business models", "autonomous vehicles", "urban transport system", "renewable energy", "subsidy", "public policies"; all of them were combined with the keyword "public transport". Based on the literature review, the projections prepared by Melander (2019) were adapted for public transport by passenger buses, as the article dealt with projections for sustainable cargo transport. The adapted dimensions are: User behavior, Transport sector, Automation, Urban transport, Energy solutions and Public policies and investments.
In the User behavior dimension, Roche-Cerasi et al. (2013) highlight that individual transport user value comfort and route flexibility, while public transport users are concerned with health, environmental and travel convenience issues, giving rise to the adapted projections of the questionnaire, P1 and P2. Regarding the Transport Sector dimension, the need to include clauses foreseeing risks and negative externalities in the contracts; the increase in government subsidies and the emergence of mobility as a service and the use of applications for mobility are much discussed in the literature and reflected in the projections adapted to research P3 and P4 (Marinic e Vanoberghen, 2016).
As for the automation dimension, the most discussed subject was vehicle automation and the integration of vehicles with the infrastructure, giving rise to the adapted projections P5 and P6 (Lam;Leung;Chu, 2014). But for the Urban Transport dimension, the most discussed topics were the individual use of the urban vehicle, integration of more sustainable modes of public transport and new solutions for individual transport, generating the adapted projections P7, P8 and P9 (Webb, 2019;Hensher). , 2017).
In the Energy solutions dimension, the type of fuel used was the most relevant subject addressed in the literature, giving rise to the adapted projection P10 (Grijalva;Lopez Martinez, 2019;Franzitta et al., 2017). And in the Policy and public investment dimension, the most relevant topics were the need for urgent investments in the sector, development of norms and policies for the use of fuels from renewable sources and government subsidy, generating the adapted projections P11, P12 and P13 (Ling et al. al., 2019;Wong and Hensher, 2018;Ljungberg, 2016;Christiansen, 2018) Taking into account all the content of each dimension and the projections proposed by Melander et al. (2019), the projections adapted for this research, according to the content of each dimension, were displayed in Table 1.

Projections -Dimension: Urban transport
Dimension and projection references P7-The number of individual cars in the area SMC will be reduced. P8-The PTB will be an important link in the integration with other more sustainable modes (walking, cycling, scooters, etc) in SMC. P9-New individual transport solutions will replace traditional automotive vehicles (cars, motorcycles) in SMC (Melander et al., 2019;Webb, 2019;Hensher, 2017).

Projections -Dimension: Public Policy and Investments
Dimension and projection references P11-Public bus transport policies will have greater priority for investments in other sectors in SMC P12-SMC will have government regulations on the use of renewable fuels. P13-Public transport by bus will be subsidized by the government. (Melander et al.,2019;Ling et al., 2019;Wong and Hensher, 2018;Ljungberg, 2016;Christiansen, 2018).
In the next section, the method applied to analyze the questionnaire data will be exposed.

Panel of experts and analysis of the degree of agreement
The article's research method can be described as descriptive, survey-type and quantitative, with data collection carried out through a questionnaire applied to specialists. Descriptive survey research aims to understand the relevance of a given phenomenon and describe the distribution of the phenomenon in a population (Forzza, 2002).
In the present case, there is a gap or few researches regarding the future of urban mobility in small and medium-sized cities that massively use the bus modal; making the phenomenon relevant. As well as Zakharov and Fadyushin (2021) describe the difficulty that cities in emerging countries are facing to develop transport systems that guarantee competitive advantages in the economy and sustainable mobility for citizens. Thus, Brazil was chosen to represent the application population of the study.
The questionnaire was based on sending a research instrument (semi-structured questionnaire) to a group of experts, with the objective of analyzing projections that impact sustainable urban mobility for the year 2030 in small and medium-sized cities that use the bus as a main modal of transport (Santos; Parra Filho, 1998). The research can still be defined as quantitative, as it uses: the calculation of the degree of agreement of the experts' answers to the proposed projections, as well as the calculation of the averages for the formation of groups by proximity of values (Sanches;Meireles;Sordi, 2011).
In the next section, the research steps were described.

Research steps
To achieve the research objective, six steps were organized, namely: 1-Literature review, 2-Preparation of the questionnaire, 3-Pilot test, 4-Sending the questionnaire, 5-Data analysis by calculating the degree of agreement and formation of groups by the average, 6-Discussions.

Figure 1: Steps of projections
In the next sections of this chapter, the research steps will be described.

Step 1 -Literature review
To understand the research problem, a literature review was carried out to adapt the projections of the questionnaire by Melander et al. (2019) for urban public transport by bus. The literature review was carried out according to the method proposed by Fiorini and Jabbour (2017) and Bezerra et al. (2019) and the keywords used have already been described previously.

Step 2 -Preparation of the questionnaire
From the questionnaire of the article entitled: "Future goods transport in Sweden 2050: Using a Delphi-based scenario" (Melander et al., 2019) the instrument of this research was formalized.
In this way, the dimensions and affirmative projections of the mentioned article were adapted to be used in the form of a questionnaire in the present research, considering that the authors carried out a vast literature review and research with specialists from several countries, resulting in an instrument suitable for application in several countries, after the necessary adaptations.

Step 3 -Pilot Testing and Selection of Experts
Once the questionnaire was prepared, it was subjected to a pilot test (Gil, Berenguer and Cervera, 2008). Thus, 4 experts were randomly selected from among academics, professionals from ANTT (National Land Transport Agency), NTU (National Association of Public Transport Companies), IDEC (Brazilian Institute for Consumer Protection), ANPET (National Association of Research and Teaching in Transport) and professionals from municipal governments in the urban mobility sector.

Step 4: sending the questionnaire
The questionnaire was sent to the specialists through a link via email. By accessing the link, the specialists had access to the 13 affirmative projections and were able to vote on a 7-point Likert scale on the intensity of their agreement or disagreement with a given projection in relation to three aspects: probability of occurrence in 2030; impact on the transport sector and desirability of occurrence.

Step 5: Data analysis
For the analysis of the data, the method of analysis of the degree of agreement of the experts was chosen to evaluate the projections on public transport by bus regarding the probability of occurrence, impact on the public transport sector by bus and desirability of the occurrence of the projections, as well as the averages of each projection were calculated, organizing them into three groups of greater proximity to analyze the relationship between them.

Analysis of the degree of agreement
The first analysis to be used was the analysis of the degree of agreement using the data from the questionnaire answered by the specialists.
The Likert-type scale was chosen because it best represents the intensity of opinions regarding a given topic. Thus, for each affirmative projection presented in the questionnaire, the experts were able to present their opinion in a gradation that went from 1 very low to 7 very high in relation to the probability of occurrence of a given event, impact that this event will cause in the transportation industry if it occurs and the respondent's desirability of the event occurs.
With these parameters, in order to measure these agreements, responses were scored using sequential scores from -3 to + 3 (as indicated in Table 2. According to the score presented in Table 2, the degree of agreement was calculated for each affirmative projection present in the questionnaire in order to weigh the real perception of the respondents (Ho, 2017).
The calculation used takes into account the number of times each semantic differential appears voted in each affirmative projection, so there is the possibility of differentiating the discordant from the concordant, as well as reaching a degree of agreement between the answers (Sanches;Meireles;DE Sordi, 2011

Projections grouped by averages
In addition to the degree of agreement of the semantic differential of the 13 affirmative projections, organized on a Likert scale developed in the Microsoft Excel program, an analysis of the groups of projections was also carried out, formed through the average generated by the degree of agreement and plotted in a graph performed in the software of SPSS 21.0 statistical analysis.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS
In this chapter, the results listed in the method part will be presented, such as: degree of agreement and formation of the group of projections formed by the averages of the degree of agreement.

Results for the Degree of Agreement
The calculations for the degree of agreement were performed with the aid of the Microsoft Excel program, using the equations mentioned in section 3.7.1, and the results organized by categories, in the following order: 1-probability of occurrence, 2-impact on the sector of transport, 3-desirability of occurrence for each proposed projection. Table 3 shows the results of the degree of agreement for the category probability of occurrence. Where: Proj. = projection; Nº R = number of respondents; P = punctuation DS = discordant with the sentence; CS = Concordant of the sentence; GC = degree of agreement.
According to Table 3, the most expressive degree of agreement, that is, above 50%, was in relation to the projections: P3, P4, P8. In this way, for specialists, in 2030, in small and medium-sized Brazilian cities, there is a great chance that the P3, P4 and P8 projections will occur, they indicate respectively: P3 -the presence of new actors in the transport market (drivers of applications), removing a large portion of passengers from the TPU by bus in small and medium-sized cities, P4 -drastic changes in the TPU by bus business model in small and medium-sized cities, mainly in relation to the way of calculating the fare and P8-The integration of TPU by bus with other more sustainable modes (walking, cycling, scooter) in small and medium-sized cities.
Of the three projections, only P4 and P8 would have the ability to help achieve sustainable urban mobility.
P4 may have been indicated by the specialists, in view of the legislative changes around the tariff subsidy increased by the Urban Mobility Law, 12,587 of 2012, change in the tariff calculation presented by the proposal of ANTT Associação Nacional de Transportes Terrestres in São Paulo, on the 21st of Aug. 2017, implementing a new methodology for calculating the costs of bus services, called the ANTT spreadsheet (Asquini, 2017); as well as the incorporation of transport as a social right (Brasil, 1988). However, according to Chow (2014) related to P4, public transport systems can make more use of mobile technologies than just to measure system performance; can improve boarding times or analyze travel patterns, collaborating for an integrated and intelligent public transport system, in this way business change can also come from the adoption of new technologies.
P8 can be explained by the adoption of more sustainable transport such as bicycles and scooters in large capitals, with a tendency for innovations to be incorporated by small and mediumsized cities over time and also a requirement in Municipal Urban Mobility Plans, with the need to incorporate more sustainable means of transport (BRASIL, 2020) and also the change in habits of younger people who are less interested in having a driver's license, due to the cost and ease of transport via apps (Webb, 2019). ).
The P3 projection, on the other hand, is negative for sustainable urban mobility, since the increase in app drivers means increasing the fleet of individual vehicles transiting in cities, and, consequently, increasing air pollution. However, for the bus transport market to survive, app drivers will need to provide bus-based options that include smart bookable "point-to-point" services that offer different travel times and fares (Henser, 2017), only then will there be an effective reduction in the use of individual transport (P7).
For the category impact on the public transport sector by bus, the degree of agreement is presented in Table 4.  For the category impact on the public transport sector by bus, all projections reached an agreement level above 50%, indicating that the questionnaire is well aligned with the theme.
However, it should be noted that three of the projections reached a very high level of agreement, above 70%, they are: P3 -New actors, such as: transport (application drivers) will remove a large portion of passengers from the TPU for buses, in small and medium-sized cities; P4-The business model of TPU bus companies, in small and medium-sized cities, will be subject to drastic changes, mainly in relation to the way of calculating the fare; and P13 -Public transport by bus will receive a government subsidy.
The three projections identified as having a great impact, in general, reflect the economic needs of the public transport sector by bus. P4 demonstrates the need to readjust the business model and mainly types of contract. P13 shows the impact that the tariff subsidy instituted by the Urban Mobility Law, 12,587 of 2012, could bring to the improvement of public transport by bus, including in 2017, the new ANTT spreadsheet, brought innovations to the calculation, specifying the value of the dealer's remuneration and the risk remuneration in the service implementation phase, such as: change in environmental standards, decrease in demand for external factors, increase in existing gratifications, lack of readjustments, lack of public or chamber subsidy and operational risks and labor (ASQUINI, 2017).
Also in 2015, transport rose to the status of social right, however, all this legal apparatus is still recent to make public transport a more attractive means of transport in small and medium-sized Brazilian cities, to the point of assisting in the sustainability issue.
For the desirability of occurrence category, the calculation of the degree of agreement is presented in Table 5.  According to Table 5, the projections with a degree of agreement above 50% were P1 -Most inhabitants of medium and small cities in Brazil will travel by urban public transport (TPU), P2 -Most of the inhabitants of small and medium-sized cities will care about more sustainable displacements, P4 -The business model of TPU companies by bus, in small and medium-sized cities, will be subject to drastic changes, mainly in relation to to the fare calculation mode, P5 -TPU buses from small and medium-sized cities will be gradually connected and will communicate with each other and with the infrastructure, P7 -The number of individual cars in the area of small and medium cities size will be reduced, P8 -TPU by bus will be an important link in the integration with other more sustainable modes (walking, bicycle, scooter, etc) in small and medium-sized cities, P9 -New individual transport solutions will replace traditional automotive vehicles (cars, motorcycles) in small and medium-sized cities, P10 -Most TPU vehicles will use fuels from renewable sources (example: electric buses) in small and medium-sized cities, P11 -Public policies and bus transport will have higher priority than investments in other sectors in small and mediumsized cities, P12 -Small and medium-sized cities will have government regulations on the use of renewable fuels, and P13 -Public transport by bus receive a government subsidy. All these projections are related to user behavior, legislation and public policies, economic improvements and advances in the transport sector.
It can be seen in Table 5 that experts do not want the following projections to occur: P3 -New actors, such as: transport (application drivers) will remove a large portion of passengers from the TPU by bus, in small and medium-sized cities and P6 -TPU buses, in small and medium-sized cities, will be gradually replaced by autonomous vehicles.
The lack of desire for the occurrence of P3 is linked to the issue of sustainability, because in order to achieve sustainable mobility, the ideal would be to reduce the use of cars and greater adherence to public transport. For this occurs in a satisfactory way the transport companies should visualize the transport as a service, where the passenger can buy a single ticket and move from point to point using several modes in addition to the conventional bus (Hensher, 2017).
P6 is a projection related to the automation of urban buses, however, for the implementation of this type of technology, the infrastructure of cities must be fully adapted with corridors and exclusive lanes for buses and this is a reality that is not very present in small and Brazilian midsize. According to Uhlemann (2016), some tests with autonomous vehicles have already been carried out in the cities of Buenos Aires, São Paulo and Tel Aviv.
The situation of infrastructure in Brazilian cities has also been discussed since 2019 with the "Smart Cities" project, for the formation of smart cities in Brazil. The project is a partnership between SEBRAE and universities and city halls. At first, the Project will work with the following cities: Campina Grande (PB), Maceió (AL), Florianópolis (SC), Vitória (ES), Maringá (PR) and Campinas (SP), but the tendency is that this innovation arrives in small and medium-sized cities (Brazilian Network of Smart and Human Cities, 2019; SEBRAE, 2019).
Several projects and legislative initiatives have been implemented recently since 2012. Brazil has been in a growing number of initiatives, but their development to the point of having real effects for sustainable urban mobility will not be felt until 2030, as it is a short space of time for robust results.

Results of the projection groups
To form groups with the projections, the averages of the degree of agreement were first calculated for each category: probability of occurrence, impact on the transport sector and desirability of occurrence, as shown in Table 6. The averages were calculated from the verification of the number of answers in each of the 7 points of the Likert scale for each of the 13 projections, in each category. After calculating the averages, it was possible to plot a graph placing the probability of occurrence on the "X" axis and impact on the transport sector on the "Y" axis, it was also possible to identify the projections and indicate through different geometric shapes the desirability of occurrence, as shown in Figure 2. In front of Figure 2 we have three groups of projections. Group 1 represented by the projections (P3 and P4) have a high probability of occurrence, but a low impact on the transport sector. Group 2 has most of the projections (P1, P2, P5, P8, P9, P10, P12, P13) with a medium probability of occurrence, but a high impact on the transport sector. Group 3 (P6, P7 and P11) has a low probability of occurrence and medium impact on the transport sector.
We have as a high probability of occurrence the P3 represented by the increase in the use of semi-public transport, drivers per application, this issue will not bring positive impacts to the collective public transport sector reducing the demand for this modal, as well as it will not help in sustainable urban mobility, as it will bring an increase in individual vehicles traveling on the roads and consequently will increase congestion and CO2 emissions. P4, fare change, has a high probability of occurring, but alone it is not able to attract the consumer to use public transport, other aspects such as travel time and flexibility are more considered by the consumer.
To make transport more attractive in terms of travel time and flexibility, Europe has been adopting on-demand services such as Kamargianni et al. (2015) identify a number of existing travel services/initiatives where citizens receive a monthly subscription payment method and travel from point to point in a multimodal way (MOBIB 5 in Brussels,HANNOVERmobil,6 EMMA in Montpellier,SMILE 7 in Vienna and Moovel in Germany; these initiatives can be studied for implementation in Brazil (Henser, 2017).
In group 2 we have projections with a medium probability of occurrence, but they would have a high impact on the public transport sector by bus, they are: P1 increase in the use of public transport, P2 interest in sustainability, P5 Integrated TPU infrastructure, P8 integration with sustainable intermodal, P9 the use of transport as services, P10 TPU with renewable energy, P12 exclusive lane and corridor systems, P13 government subsidy; All these projections, in addition to having a positive impact on the public transport sector, are also levers for sustainable urban mobility and should be encouraged by governments, through legislation, environmental education for the population and a change in the purpose of companies, drawing up more adaptable contracts to on-demand transport concepts (Webb, 2019).
In group 3, we have the projections with a low probability of occurrence and with medium impact on the public transport sector by bus, they are: P6 technology for vehicle automation, still far from happening, being in the testing phase in some countries (Lam, Leung , Chu, 2014;Milakis, Van Arem and Van Wee, 2019;Uhlemann, 2016;Fagnante and Kokelman, 2014;Acheampong and Cugurullo, 2019); P7 reduction of individual transport, it will still be necessary to invest in environmental education to debunk the ownership of the individual vehicle as the main means of transport, because according to Gebhardt, (2021) mobility is not only a technical problem, but a behavioral and cultural problem in several countries , therefore, it is necessary to analyze the behavior of people around the car and the daily needs of the population to increase changes in the use of the individual vehicle; and P11 public investment priority, the transport sector is not yet seen as a priority investment in Brazil, because according to the Brasil 3 Tempos Project, prepared by the Strategic Affairs Center of the Presidency of the Republic for the years 2007, 2015 and 2022 , 50 strategic themes were addressed without considering mobility and transport issues (NAE, 2006).
Regarding the desirability of occurrence category, we have projections P1 increase in the use of public transport with high desirability, P2 interest in sustainability, P5 integration of the TPU with the infrastructure, P7 reduction in the use of individual transport, P8 integration with sustainable intermodal, P10 TPU with renewable energy and P12 exclusive corridors and lanes; all projections would increase sustainable urban mobility and smart land use.
With medium desirability, we have the projections P4 change in the tariff calculation, P9 transport as a service, P11 public investment priority and P13 government subsidy, most of them relate to government action to encourage the use of public transport through financial investment.
Already with a low level of desire for the occurrence by the experts, the projections P3 use of transport by application and P6 technology for autonomous vehicles, both projections would bring negative impacts to economic mobility both in the environmental aspect and increase in CO2 emissions; and in the social sphere, whit mass unemployment of bus drivers.
However, the literature is contrary to the reasoning of Brazilian specialists, bringing new ways of dealing with automation and new technologies in favor of public transport, making automation and application services also used by public transport companies in the form of ondemand services and integration of multiple modes (Melander et al., 2019;Webb, 2019;Hensher, 2017;Lam, Leung and Chu, 2014, Milakis, Van Arem and Van Wee, 2019, Uhlemann, 2016Fagnante and Kokelman, 2014;Acheampong and Cugurullo, 2019).

CONCLUSION, IMPLICATIONS, AND FUTURE RESEARCH
This research focused on analyzing the perspective of public transport by bus in 2030 in small and medium-sized cities, with a focus on sustainable urban mobility, in order to observe how urban mobility will be able to assist in a transversal way in the objectives of sustainable development.
The results of the calculation of the degree of agreement showed that only three projections of the 13 analyzed will occur in 2030 and may help to achieve sustainable development. The projections with the highest agreement of occurrence by the specialists are P3 use of semi-public transport, P4 change in the business model and fare calculation and P8 integration of the TPU by bus with other more sustainable modes. Among the three projections reported, only P8 will have a positive impact on sustainable urban mobility.
But according to the literature, services by applications, automation, new energy sources and all forms of modernization of transport services can be incorporated by public transport by bus, which will generate great environmental and economic impact for companies (Chow, 2014;Webb, 2019;Hensher, 2017;Grijalva and Lopez Martinez, 2019;Franzitta et al., 2017).
As for the impact on the public transport sector, all projections reached a 50% agreement among experts. However, it should be noted that three of the projections reached a very high level of agreement, above 70%, they are: P3 use of semi-public transport; P4 change in business model and tariff calculation; and P13 government subsidy, demonstrating that public investment is highly important to assist the TPU bus sector.
However, according to Ling et al (2019) the asymmetry of information between the company and the government is an obstacle to the granting of subsidies, in this way, the adoption of new technologies can help both companies and the government to assess the true costs of all the bus lines and offer a subsidy that is consistent, coherent and that helps to subsidize the more distant routes, where people with lower incomes are concentrated.
In addition to the subsidy, new ways of dealing with transport and its collection can encourage users, promoting point-to-point transport as it has been adopted in Europe with great success, including monthly payment and modal interconnection (Melander et al., 2019;Webb, 2019;Hensher, 2017).
As desirable, the experts agreed with most of the projections, except for the P3 use of semipublic transport and P6 automation of the TPU, as they do not bring positive impacts to sustainable urban mobility.
Regarding the calculation of the averages of the projections of the categories: probability of occurrence, impact on the transport sector and desirability of occurrence, it is removed that the projections with the greatest impact for sustainable urban mobility and for the public transport sector by bus are the of group 2 (P1 increase in the use of public transport, P2 interest in sustainability, P5 Integrated TPU infrastructure, P8 integration with sustainable intermodal, P9 the use of transport as service, P10 TPU with renewable energy, P12 exclusive lane and corridor systems , P13 government subsidy); as they have a medium probability of occurrence, they should be encouraged by the government in conjunction with companies.
In addition to all the data discussed, the research brought as theoretical implications a literature review that provided a list of the main problems caused by urban mobility, as well as the research instrument, a questionnaire, adapted from the work of Melander et al. (2019) that can be applied to experts from other countries to diagnose whether small and medium-sized cities that use public transport by bus in a main way are aligned with sustainability issues and will positively contribute to the achievement of goals and sustainable development goals.
As managerial implications, the main projections that should be worked on by the public and private sector were indicated as goals for achieving improvements in the public transport sector by bus and achieving sustainable urban mobility, found through the calculation of the averages of the degree of agreement (P1 increased use of public transport, P2 interest in sustainability, P5 Integrated TPU infrastructure, P8 integration with sustainable intermodal, P9 the use of transport as services, P10 TPU with renewable energy, P12 exclusive lane and corridor systems, P13 government subsidy ).
Regarding the policy implications, the public transport sector by bus permeates contracts that need to change, mainly to balance the responsibilities of the company and the contracting government.
Directing the survey to specialists in the field of transport in Brazil made the work rich, but the short time it took for the survey questionnaire to be answered may have generated an average return, with 55% of the total sent. It can also be highlighted that the research was carried out before the Covid 19 pandemic, different results can be achieved at other times.
However, relevant issues were found in the literature review of the present research that can generate future research, among them: the servility of the car and new ways of dealing with vehicle ownership as a way of aiding sustainable mobility. Also specifically, the role of smart technology in the hands of customers as a way of providing services tailored to the needs and preferences of current and future public transport users, called mobility as a service.